Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
88 picks · 202 bans
Mars
84 picks · 179 bans
Earth Spirit
76 picks · 63 bans
Void Spirit
68 picks · 125 bans
Rubick
59 picks · 31 bans
Phoenix
56 picks · 70 bans
Undying
56 picks · 77 bans
Wraith King
55 picks · 55 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Unique
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:31
Team Unique 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:50.
Game 2prediction missed13:22
Team Unique 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 27:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 60%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2