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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Unique

No games played over 6 months.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 6 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
50%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Lodine · 5 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Lodine · 4 games
25%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
75%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Lodine · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
429 picks · 953 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
407 picks · 589 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
356 picks · 653 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
336 picks · 598 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
311 picks · 276 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 367 bans
62%
Tusk
Tusk
253 picks · 176 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
246 picks · 346 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:20
Team Unique 48%Nemiga Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:07.
Game 2prediction correct23:34
Team Unique 48%Nemiga Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:09.
Game 3prediction correct25:42
Team Unique 48%Nemiga Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 51:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 52%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3