Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 12 games
Lion
Lodine · 11 games
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 10 games
Hoodwinksignature
Heaven · 10 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
424 picks · 170 bans
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 474 bans
Mars
306 picks · 520 bans
Nyx Assassin
300 picks · 612 bans
Puck
297 picks · 714 bans
Enchantress
273 picks · 347 bans
Snapfire
266 picks · 152 bans
Hoodwink
255 picks · 104 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:37
Team Unique 45%Nemiga Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:57.
Game 2prediction correct42:30
Team Unique 45%Nemiga Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 58:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 55%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2