Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 0:2series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 11 games
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 10 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 9 games
Miranasignature
Mira · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 7 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 7 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
411 picks · 985 bans
Void Spirit
371 picks · 531 bans
Mars
354 picks · 570 bans
Death Prophet
341 picks · 709 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 336 bans
Lion
311 picks · 170 bans
Tusk
305 picks · 227 bans
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 75%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total79% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:20
Team Unique 21%Team Spirit 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:40.
Game 2prediction correct16:42
Team Unique 21%Team Spirit 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 79%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2