EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 3 games
Grimstroke
Fata · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Fata · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 3 games
Abaddon
33 · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
344 picks · 710 bans
Void Spirit
326 picks · 413 bans
Mars
272 picks · 482 bans
Earth Spirit
253 picks · 213 bans
Death Prophet
232 picks · 345 bans
Rubick
229 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 649 bans
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 445 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:26
Team Unique 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 50:56.
Game 2prediction correct19:39
Team Unique 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 42:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 57%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2