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Claro Gaming Apu League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Unknownloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hokoriwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Unknown

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Wij · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wij · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Robo-Z · 8 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 7 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Robo-Z · 7 games
71%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Prada · 7 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Robo-Z · 6 games
50%

Hokori

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
477 picks · 188 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 210 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 578 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
348 picks · 859 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
321 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 455 bans
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
314 picks · 295 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
307 picks · 593 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 42%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:57
Team Unknown 56%Hokori 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 1:13:18.
Game 2prediction missed6:29
Team Unknown 56%Hokori 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Hokori in 16:16.
Game 3prediction missed43:59
Team Unknown 56%Hokori 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Hokori in 50:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 56%
Series resultHokori 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3