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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Unknownloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Interituswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Unknown

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wij · 13 games
54%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Prada · 7 games
71%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Robo-Z · 7 games
71%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Prada · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Prada · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 6 games
17%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Robo-Z · 5 games
40%

Interitus

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
H1j4ck · 4 games
50%
Axe
Axe
FCR · 2 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
DFlash · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Rayuur · 2 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Amin · 2 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
DFlash · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
DFlash · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
H1j4ck · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
335 picks · 477 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
287 picks · 164 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
273 picks · 220 bans
59%
Weaver
Weaver
270 picks · 600 bans
57%
Monkey King
Monkey King
254 picks · 714 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
254 picks · 393 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
217 picks · 306 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
214 picks · 137 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Unknown
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:20
Team Unknown 47%Interitus 53%
The model gave 53% on Interitus — the game was taken by Interitus in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterArgius
51% · 110 games47% · 159 games
LunaFCR
Luna
Invoker
InvokerBlackSoul
54% · 134 games47% · 82 games
Queen of PainRayuur
Queen of Pain
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBenjaz
41% · 32 games51% · 98 games
Centaur WarrunnerH1j4ck
Centaur Warrunner
Lion
LionMoonlight
41% · 222 games59% · 95 games
WeaverAmin
Weaver
Undying
UndyingFeelinG
47% · 36 games57% · 100 games
BaneDFlash
Bane
Game 2prediction correct29:19
Team Unknown 51%Interitus 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 41:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaArgius
48% · 140 games35% · 24 games
SniperFCR
Sniper
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBlackSoul
52% · 205 games42% · 176 games
Storm SpiritRayuur
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBenjaz
58% · 169 games42% · 305 games
MarsH1j4ck
Mars
Weaver
WeaverMoonlight
56% · 141 game61% · 68 games
Treant ProtectorDFlash
Treant Protector
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFeelinG
59% · 82 games46% · 164 games
RubickAmin
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct11:28
Team Unknown 49%Interitus 51%
The model gave 51% on Interitus — the game was taken by Interitus in 34:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterArgius
42% · 128 games56% · 34 games
BristlebackFCR
Bristleback
Kunkka
KunkkaBlackSoul
54% · 138 games47% · 144 games
Ember SpiritRayuur
Ember Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderBenjaz
45% · 88 games46% · 254 games
MarsH1j4ck
Mars
Weaver
WeaverMoonlight
53% · 168 games61% · 85 games
Dark WillowAmin
Dark Willow
Io
IoFeelinG
46% · 155 games53% · 160 games
BaneDFlash
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 50%
Series resultInteritus 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3