The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Unknownwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
King Of Kingsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unknown
Snapfire
Wij · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Robo-Z · 9 games
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 7 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Wij · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 5 games
Lion
Wij · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 5 games
King Of Kings
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
454 picks · 194 bans
Mars
396 picks · 591 bans
Puck
392 picks · 897 bans
Snapfire
373 picks · 206 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 325 bans
Tiny
328 picks · 239 bans
Ancient Apparition
294 picks · 411 bans
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 397 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% King Of Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% King Of Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:16
Team Unknown 47%King Of Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on King Of Kings — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 29:39.
Game 2prediction missed31:9
Team Unknown 47%King Of Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on King Of Kings — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 26:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteKing Of Kings · 53%
Series resultTeam Unknown 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2