Team Unknown vs Latam Defenders — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO1

result vs prediction

Team Unknownwin 1:0

series probability

63%37%

probability at match start · final 1:0

Latam Defendersloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Unknown

No games played over 6 months.

Latam Defenders

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Ogre Magi

5 picks · 0 bans

44%

Void Spirit

5 picks · 7 bans

67%

Earth Spirit

4 picks · 3 bans

63%

Mirana

4 picks · 4 bans

75%

Tiny

4 picks · 2 bans

50%

Vengeful Spirit

4 picks · 3 bans

25%

Brewmaster

3 picks · 2 bans

71%

Death Prophet

3 picks · 1 bans

29%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%

Hero pool strength50% Team Unknown

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total63% Team Unknown

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct26:10

Team Unknown 56%Latam Defenders 44%

The model gave 56% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 27:57.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo