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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Unknownloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NoPing VPNwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Unknown

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Yadomi · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Wij · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 6 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 5 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wij · 4 games
25%

NoPing VPN

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Michael · 14 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Matthew · 10 games
80%
Mars
Marssignature
Oscar · 9 games
78%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkMago · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mariano · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Accel · 7 games
86%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 991 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 572 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
343 picks · 523 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
337 picks · 347 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
325 picks · 699 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
322 picks · 176 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 224 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 279 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 70%
Hero pool strength57% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total80% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:34
Team Unknown 32%NoPing VPN 68%
The model gave 68% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 28:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRobo-Z
48% · 41 game46% · 39 games
Nature's ProphethFn
Nature's Prophet
Leshrac
LeshracSacred
54% · 51 game34% · 17 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Tiny
TinyWij
51% · 59 games54% · 121 game
MarsOscar
Mars
Abaddon
AbaddonPrada
52% · 80 games48% · 50 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
50% · 4 games
Winter WyvernPanda
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct41:39
Team Unknown 30%NoPing VPN 70%
The model gave 70% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 48:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaRobo-Z
47% · 38 games50% · 32 games
MorphlinghFn
Morphling
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
46% · 70 games45% · 10 games
BatriderDarkMago
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireWij
53% · 81 game47% · 69 games
MarsOscar
Mars
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterPrada
55% · 20 games45% · 44 games
OraclePanda
Oracle
61% · 54 games
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 80%
Series resultNoPing VPN 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2