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Claro Gaming Apu League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Unknownwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Omega Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Unknown

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Wij · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wij · 10 games
30%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Yadomi · 8 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Robo-Z · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Robo-Z · 8 games
25%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Prada · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 7 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Robo-Z · 6 games
50%

Omega Gaming

Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Jeimari · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Zxca · 6 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mingatte · 6 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mingatte · 4 games
25%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Demon · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeimari · 4 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Mingatte · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Zxca · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
467 picks · 185 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 206 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
354 picks · 563 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
340 picks · 833 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 464 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 239 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 599 bans
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
296 picks · 277 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Team Unknown
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Team Unknown
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:24
Team Unknown 58%Omega Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLumière
65% · 79 games48% · 85 games
AxeMingatte
Axe
Broodmother
Broodmotherdrakeel
48% · 26 games43% · 85 games
ViperMr.Jeans
Viper
Invoker
InvokerRobo-Z
60% · 62 games50% · 67 games
HoodwinkDemon
Hoodwink
Tiny
TinyWij
56% · 68 games40% · 62 games
Winter WyvernShakaLord
Winter Wyvern
Abaddon
AbaddonPrada
40% · 64 games
Game 2prediction missed31:45
Team Unknown 57%Omega Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLumière
69% · 24 games55% · 51 game
Nature's ProphetMingatte
Nature's Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaRobo-Z
48% · 39 games60% · 72 games
RazorMr.Jeans
Razor
Tidehunter
Tidehunterdrakeel
50% · 64 games44% · 106 games
Earth SpiritDemon
Earth Spirit
Lion
LionWij
44% · 111 games51% · 48 games
Treant ProtectorShakaLord
Treant Protector
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPrada
40% · 39 games
Game 3prediction correct34:8
Team Unknown 55%Omega Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Unknown — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 26:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaLumière
41% · 38 games58% · 91 game
Nature's ProphetMingatte
Nature's Prophet
Puck
PuckRobo-Z
44% · 161 game57% · 116 games
Templar AssassinMr.Jeans
Templar Assassin
Mars
Marsdrakeel
50% · 147 games47% · 232 games
Earth SpiritDemon
Earth Spirit
Tusk
TuskWij
45% · 98 games47% · 60 games
Treant ProtectorShakaLord
Treant Protector
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPrada
61% · 55 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unknown · 64%
Series resultTeam Unknown 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3