ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionTWTeam wkwkwkloss 0:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Nemesis Cursewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team wkwkwk
Gyrocopter
Xepher · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Handsken · 4 games
Lion
Xepher · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
s4 · 4 games
Techies
Xepher · 4 games
Abaddonoften banned
Smiling Knight · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
s4 · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 3 games
Nemesis Curse
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 425 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 405 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
226 picks · 606 bans
Tusk
225 picks · 205 bans
Lion
221 picks · 189 bans
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 95 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Nemesis Curse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team wkwkwk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team wkwkwk 55%Nemesis Curse 45%
The model gave 55% on Team wkwkwk — the game was taken by Nemesis Curse.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam wkwkwk · 55%
Series resultNemesis Curse 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1