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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 13 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 8 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Chira JUNIOR · 8 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Noticed · 8 games
50%

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 30 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 27 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 27 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
42%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
64%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
566 picks · 286 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
506 picks · 509 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
378 picks · 1040 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
338 picks · 387 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
335 picks · 167 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
333 picks · 154 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 562 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
317 picks · 237 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:16
Team Yandex 67%4Pirates 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracChira JUNIOR
52% · 149 games58% · 76 games
Faceless Voidzvёzd
Faceless Void
Marci
MarciWatson
55% · 150 games47% · 144 games
Timbersawмистер мораль
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsNoticed
46% · 239 games51% · 221 game
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
Dragon Knight
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
43% · 204 games46% · 242 games
SnapfirePERDAN4IK
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonprblms
49% · 210 games54% · 269 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct44:22
Team Yandex 66%4Pirates 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 41:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
53% · 273 games56% · 492 games
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
Storm Spirit
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWatson
48% · 432 games51% · 431 game
Dragon Knightzvёzd
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
48% · 563 games50% · 250 games
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonprblms
49% · 238 games48% · 569 games
Tinyariel
Tiny
Tusk
TuskMalady
50% · 501 game47% · 265 games
JakiroPERDAN4IK
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 81%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2