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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
79%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Saksa · 21 game
57%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
79%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 16 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 16 games
69%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 16 games
44%
Kez
Kezsignature
Watson · 16 games
63%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 54 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 50 games
58%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 38 games
74%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 38 games
66%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 38 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 37 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 37 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 32 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
515 picks · 354 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
359 picks · 423 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
348 picks · 629 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 475 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
312 picks · 170 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 346 bans
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
310 picks · 596 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
302 picks · 221 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Team Yandex
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total56% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:21
Team Yandex 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosWatson
57% · 69 games44% · 281 game
Shadow FiendNightfall
Shadow Fiend
Monkey King
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
53% · 71 game45% · 263 games
UnderlordWs
Underlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
48% · 237 games50% · 119 games
Earth SpiritMikoto
Earth Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
52% · 390 games47% · 128 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
59% · 125 games47% · 101 game
Winter WyvernKaori
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed9:36
Team Yandex 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaWatson
53% · 81 game45% · 164 games
InvokerMikoto
Invoker
Doom
DoomDM
54% · 183 games56% · 357 games
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
57% · 478 games50% · 463 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaSaksa
52% · 121 game44% · 119 games
Winter WyvernKaori
Winter Wyvern
Tusk
TuskMalady
51% · 477 games37% · 237 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed9:29
Team Yandex 54%Aurora Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezWatson
48% · 170 games52% · 91 game
LycanWs
Lycan
Necrophos
NecrophosChira JUNIOR
54% · 55 games53% · 262 games
Shadow FiendNightfall
Shadow Fiend
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
52% · 327 games47% · 122 games
Earth SpiritMikoto
Earth Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
49% · 321 game49% · 452 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Undying
UndyingMalady
46% · 161 game52% · 107 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 56%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3