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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 34 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 32 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 23 games
78%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
45%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 74 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
53%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 43 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 42 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 39 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
594 picks · 923 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 421 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
476 picks · 516 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
434 picks · 294 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 1053 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
398 picks · 580 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 566 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 671 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Team Yandex
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total50% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:29
Team Yandex 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWatson
54% · 221 game47% · 134 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
48% · 282 games53% · 99 games
LargoBOOM
Largo
Doom
DoomDM
60% · 119 games53% · 447 games
Ember SpiritMidOne
Ember Spirit
Marci
MarciSaksa
53% · 127 games47% · 264 games
Muertayamich
Muerta
Tusk
TuskMalady
47% · 370 games40% · 175 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct26:14
Team Yandex 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
57% · 211 games57% · 231 game
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
52% · 463 games39% · 109 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDM
40% · 117 games49% · 338 games
Void SpiritMidOne
Void Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSaksa
53% · 283 games47% · 331 game
WarlockSeleri
Warlock
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
68% · 74 games42% · 139 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed34:10
Team Yandex 48%MOUZ 52%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 41:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaWatson
48% · 211 games57% · 214 games
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Shadow Fiend
Void Spirit
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
44% · 195 games56% · 128 games
InvokerMidOne
Invoker
Batrider
BatriderDM
51% · 271 game50% · 385 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Tiny
TinySaksa
46% · 409 games49% · 422 games
WarlockSeleri
Warlock
Dazzle
DazzleMalady
43% · 146 games55% · 83 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 50%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3