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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Roar Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 14 games
64%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
CatYou · 14 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
RedPanda · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
生死 · 9 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 8 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
CatYou · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
生死 · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
614 picks · 302 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
532 picks · 537 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 1101 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
368 picks · 193 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
356 picks · 599 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
350 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
348 picks · 157 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 262 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Roar Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:32
Team Yandex 70%Roar Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 53:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautWatson
53% · 41 game51% · 161 game
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierNoticed
47% · 428 games56% · 196 games
AbaddonUlu
Abaddon
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
45% · 242 games57% · 83 games
Night Stalker生死
Night Stalker
Slark
Slarkprblms
48% · 100 games48% · 359 games
TinyCatYou
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMalady
51% · 188 games47% · 200 games
JakiroRedPanda
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct28:10
Team Yandex 71%Roar Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 23:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaWatson
50% · 180 games50% · 360 games
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetChira JUNIOR
56% · 275 games45% · 84 games
WeaverUlu
Weaver
Axe
AxeNoticed
41% · 95 games53% · 190 games
Timbersaw生死
Timbersaw
Snapfire
SnapfireMalady
50% · 230 games54% · 289 games
BatriderCatYou
Batrider
Tusk
Tuskprblms
50% · 436 games48% · 293 games
JakiroRedPanda
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct26:8
Team Yandex 72%Roar Gaming 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 30:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
48% · 339 games41% · 197 games
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
Queen of Pain
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
54% · 210 games57% · 14 games
Phantom LancerUlu
Phantom Lancer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
51% · 231 game46% · 362 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMalady
63% · 149 games48% · 227 games
JakiroRedPanda
Jakiro
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkprblms
51% · 218 games50% · 347 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 86%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3