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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 5 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 5 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Noticed · 3 games
100%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Noticed · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 3 games
33%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Solo · 3 games
33%

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 20 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 19 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 17 games
47%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hellscream · 16 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 16 games
44%
Bane
Banesignature
Skem · 15 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 15 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
486 picks · 525 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 471 bans
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
360 picks · 203 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 361 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
348 picks · 739 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 519 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
320 picks · 202 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
317 picks · 509 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:30
Team Yandex 41%Shopify Rebellion 59%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 1:12:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomTA2000
56% · 270 games49% · 280 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
48% · 171 game44% · 212 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSolo
49% · 177 games53% · 318 games
BeastmasterDavai
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
53% · 240 games59% · 107 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Marci
Marciprblms
45% · 108 games39% · 49 games
Chaos KnightHellscream
Chaos Knight
Game 2prediction missed27:9
Team Yandex 37%Shopify Rebellion 63%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 33:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTA2000
45% · 212 games47% · 148 games
Shadow FiendTimado
Shadow Fiend
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
43% · 224 games66% · 63 games
LycanDavai
Lycan
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNoticed
38% · 121 game58% · 106 games
Void SpiritYopaj
Void Spirit
Bane
BaneSolo
40% · 32 games67% · 116 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Marci
Marciprblms
39% · 103 games58% · 259 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 66%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2