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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 19 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 17 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 16 games
81%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Malady · 14 games
64%
Tusk
Tusksignature
prblms · 14 games
64%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 13 games
69%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 37 games
62%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 24 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 20 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 20 games
70%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 19 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
681 picks · 329 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
558 picks · 588 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
450 picks · 232 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 1108 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 654 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 252 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
338 picks · 343 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
337 picks · 150 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 80%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:43
Team Yandex 32%Team Falcons 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 51:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
50% · 328 games43% · 108 games
Troll WarlordSkiter
Troll Warlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
49% · 353 games53% · 328 games
DoomATF
Doom
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
52% · 303 games46% · 542 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
51% · 193 games54% · 150 games
Bounty HunterCr1t-
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
TuskMalady
53% · 359 games49% · 408 games
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct7:30
Team Yandex 30%Team Falcons 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 30:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWatson
52% · 256 games46% · 117 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Beastmaster
BeastmasterChira JUNIOR
46% · 316 games48% · 270 games
MarsATF
Mars
Axe
AxeNoticed
53% · 111 games45% · 529 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
44% · 289 games58% · 129 games
Bounty HunterCr1t-
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
TuskMalady
49% · 336 games60% · 263 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 83%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2