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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 41 game
78%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 36 games
64%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 31 game
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 30 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 27 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 26 games
73%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Saksa · 23 games
78%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
61%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 33 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 30 games
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 26 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
67%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Skiter · 20 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
627 picks · 614 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 412 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
472 picks · 404 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 452 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
416 picks · 267 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
407 picks · 189 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 1047 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
379 picks · 855 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Team Yandex
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total53% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:33
Team Yandex 55%Team Falcons 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistWatson
53% · 53 games41% · 407 games
TinySkiter
Tiny
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
56% · 171 game40% · 301 game
Queen of PainMalr1ne
Queen of Pain
Largo
LargoDM
61% · 125 games47% · 251 game
TidehunterATF
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
53% · 407 games59% · 54 games
VenomancerSneyking
Venomancer
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
47% · 602 games48% · 345 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed10:33
Team Yandex 51%Team Falcons 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierChira JUNIOR
43% · 226 gameslittle data
Lone DruidSkiter
Lone Druid
Alchemist
AlchemistWatson
55% · 51 game52% · 331 game
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
50% · 213 games51% · 295 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
53% · 203 games47% · 324 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
45% · 389 games53% · 132 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 53%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2