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BLAST Slam VI · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 31 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 29 games
76%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 22 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 21 game
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 19 games
79%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
56%

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 26 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 23 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
74%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 19 games
63%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
605 picks · 947 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
533 picks · 433 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
481 picks · 636 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 618 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
438 picks · 959 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 662 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
399 picks · 244 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 538 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Team Yandex
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total51% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
Team Yandex 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 37:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaWatson
53% · 287 games54% · 86 games
KezYatoro
Kez
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
51% · 375 games49% · 324 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsNoticed
45% · 372 games53% · 242 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenMalady
56% · 244 games44% · 553 games
Tuskrue
Tusk
Muerta
MuertaSaksa
45% · 225 games49% · 298 games
Shadow DemonPanto
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct32:18
Team Yandex 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 51:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzWatson
58% · 65 games43% · 173 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
57% · 339 games48% · 161 game
UnderlordCollapse
Underlord
Mars
MarsNoticed
48% · 288 games48% · 427 games
Dragon KnightMirele
Dragon Knight
Chen
ChenMalady
49% · 161 game42% · 159 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
52% · 203 games58% · 136 games
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 51%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2