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BLAST Slam V · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 0:3
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Tundra Esportswin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 20 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 19 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 19 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 17 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 16 games
81%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Watson · 16 games
63%

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 36 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 29 games
72%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 27 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
52%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 24 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Pure~ · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
769 picks · 354 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
575 picks · 300 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 559 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
523 picks · 375 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
507 picks · 610 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 285 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
466 picks · 745 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
441 picks · 506 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% Team Yandex
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total72% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:43
Team Yandex 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 52:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWatson
53% · 327 games54% · 227 games
UrsaPure~
Ursa
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
53% · 347 games42% · 104 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
54% · 177 games44% · 167 games
Axe33
Axe
Warlock
WarlockMalady
55% · 339 games50% · 528 games
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Windranger
WindrangerSaksa
44% · 162 games49% · 326 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct21:39
Team Yandex 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
53% · 282 games54% · 240 games
UrsaPure~
Ursa
Slardar
SlardarChira JUNIOR
52% · 195 games48% · 214 games
Leshracbzm
Leshrac
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNoticed
55% · 93 games48% · 292 games
Centaur Warrunner33
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderSaksa
53% · 331 game45% · 229 games
PugnaWhitemon
Pugna
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
45% · 374 games48% · 300 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct16:38
Team Yandex 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerWatson
42% · 27 games53% · 51 game
JuggernautPure~
Juggernaut
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
56% · 119 games54% · 151 game
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Axe
AxeNoticed
45% · 174 games43% · 197 games
Centaur Warrunner33
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
53% · 357 games48% · 252 games
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Pugna
PugnaMalady
48% · 226 games54% · 252 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 72%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3