BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 1:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 19 games
Warlock
Solo · 18 games
Tusk
Malady · 17 games
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 16 games
Jakirosignature
Malady · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
TA2000 · 15 games
Axesignature
Noticed · 14 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 20 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 16 games
Bane
Oli · 15 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 15 games
Anti-Magesignature
flyfly · 13 games
Jakiro
Poloson · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
778 picks · 354 bans
Disruptor
582 picks · 590 bans
Hoodwink
566 picks · 299 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 543 bans
Jakiro
471 picks · 288 bans
Tusk
467 picks · 273 bans
Mars
454 picks · 740 bans
Puck
434 picks · 1119 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Team Yandex
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total81% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:20
Team Yandex 67%Yakult Brothers 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 51:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezWatson
Phantom Lancerflyfly
SlardarChira JUNIOR
PuckEmo
Night StalkerNoticed
Primal Beastzeal
BatriderSaksa
WindrangerBoBoKa
WarlockMalady
Disruptor天命
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 81%
Series resultTeam Yandex 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1