ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Jakirosignature
Malady · 40 games
Tusksignature
Malady · 38 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 30 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 24 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 23 games
Ursasignature
Watson · 22 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 29 games
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 26 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 25 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 22 games
Leshrac
Moon · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
Marsoften banned
zeal · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
641 picks · 815 bans
Tiny
561 picks · 581 bans
Tusk
461 picks · 401 bans
Warlock
453 picks · 301 bans
Shadow Demon
408 picks · 1051 bans
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 682 bans
Mars
381 picks · 608 bans
Shadow Fiend
368 picks · 971 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 38%
Hero pool strength60% Team Yandex
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total94% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:7
Team Yandex 82%Yakult Brothers 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 20:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWatson
Shadow FiendGhost
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Sand KingMoon
BrewmasterNoticed
ViperYang
JakiroMalady
HoodwinkBoBoKa
TinySaksa
Warlock天命
Game 2prediction correct28:5
Team Yandex 81%Yakult Brothers 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 24:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerWatson
Shadow FiendGhost
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
PuckMoon
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
PhoenixYang
WarlockMalady
MarciBoBoKa
TuskSaksa
Clockwerk天命
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 94%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2