Immortal Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team YYFloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DYwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team YYF
No games played over 6 months.
Team DY
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
556 picks · 618 bans
Ringmaster
480 picks · 240 bans
Jakiro
460 picks · 433 bans
Terrorblade
392 picks · 811 bans
Storm Spirit
363 picks · 539 bans
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 815 bans
Tusk
353 picks · 317 bans
Shadow Shaman
349 picks · 400 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Team YYF
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Team DY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:29
Team YYF 39%Team DY 61%
The model gave 61% on Team DY — the game was taken by Team DY in 42:32.
Game 2prediction correct37:16
Team YYF 39%Team DY 61%
The model gave 61% on Team DY — the game was taken by Team DY in 33:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DY · 61%
Series resultTeam DY 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2