Immortal Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team YYFwin 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team FYloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team YYF
No games played over 6 months.
Team FY
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
508 picks · 585 bans
Jakiro
492 picks · 441 bans
Ringmaster
467 picks · 233 bans
Terrorblade
363 picks · 738 bans
Storm Spirit
334 picks · 512 bans
Ancient Apparition
329 picks · 758 bans
Tusk
322 picks · 277 bans
Windranger
304 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 30%
Hero pool strength50% Team YYF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team YYF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:13
Team YYF 58%Team FY 42%
The model gave 58% on Team YYF — the game was taken by Team FY in 41:42.
Game 2prediction correct29:47
Team YYF 58%Team FY 42%
The model gave 58% on Team YYF — the game was taken by Team YYF in 1:03:46.
Game 3prediction correct20:31
Team YYF 58%Team FY 42%
The model gave 58% on Team YYF — the game was taken by Team YYF in 47:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam YYF · 58%
Series resultTeam YYF 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3