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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zeroloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 17 games
59%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 15 games
53%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 14 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 12 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
7e · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ponlo · 11 games
73%

Aurora Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 6 games
83%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Jabz · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
411 picks · 376 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
384 picks · 426 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 538 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
331 picks · 728 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 639 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
315 picks · 736 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
313 picks · 619 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 37%
Hero pool strength51% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:31
Team Zero 41%Aurora Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendpoyoyo
51% · 114 games52% · 188 games
Windranger23savage
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
51% · 314 games49% · 163 games
TimbersawLorenof
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand King7e
51% · 94 games56% · 145 games
Dark SeerJabz
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPonlo
52% · 164 games47% · 240 games
BatriderQ
Batrider
Tusk
Tuskzzq
43% · 146 games48% · 96 games
Elder TitanOli
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed25:9
Team Zero 42%Aurora Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Zero in 48:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerpoyoyo
49% · 206 games50% · 272 games
Dragon Knight23savage
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand King7e
46% · 80 games51% · 147 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaBEYOND
53% · 208 games53% · 196 games
DoomJabz
Doom
Phoenix
Phoenixzzq
52% · 238 games48% · 82 games
SniperQ
Sniper
Lion
LionPonlo
55% · 154 games41% · 189 games
TuskOli
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct25:35
Team Zero 40%Aurora Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:02:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerpoyoyo
52% · 138 games53% · 182 games
PuckLorenof
Puck
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit7e
46% · 68 games57% · 15 games
Drow Ranger23savage
Drow Ranger
Bristleback
BristlebackBEYOND
50% · 43 games51% · 190 games
KunkkaJabz
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickPonlo
44% · 207 games50% · 231 game
SnapfireQ
Snapfire
Phoenix
Phoenixzzq
44% · 266 games57% · 104 games
Treant ProtectorOli
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 71%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3