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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zeroloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Azure Raywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
zzq · 12 games
42%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
7e · 12 games
42%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
poyoyo · 12 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 11 games
36%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
40%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ponlo · 9 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
zzq · 8 games
63%

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
fy · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ori · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
天命 · 12 games
25%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
lou · 12 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 12 games
58%
Sven
Svenoften banned
lou · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
328 picks · 316 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 454 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
323 picks · 376 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
317 picks · 268 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
291 picks · 451 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
288 picks · 403 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
286 picks · 484 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 10
Model total56% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:26
Team Zero 45%Azure Ray 55%
The model gave 55% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 34:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetpoyoyo
49% · 125 games59% · 128 games
Alchemistlou
Alchemist
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit7e
42% · 66 games48% · 208 games
Doomniu
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
52% · 281 game49% · 201 game
Dark WillowpLAnet
Dark Willow
Sniper
SniperPyw
50% · 104 games51% · 211 games
TuskFantasy
Tusk
Clockwerk
Clockwerkzzq
46% · 172 games
Game 2prediction missed35:21
Team Zero 45%Azure Ray 55%
The model gave 55% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Zero in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherpoyoyo
37% · 35 games48% · 54 games
Shadow Fiendlou
Shadow Fiend
Doom
DoomBEYOND
53% · 119 games52% · 26 games
Visageniu
Visage
Invoker
Invoker7e
59% · 64 games47% · 120 games
SnapfirepLAnet
Snapfire
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPyw
49% · 31 game54% · 136 games
Shadow DemonFantasy
Shadow Demon
Mirana
Miranazzq
48% · 87 games
Game 3prediction correct26:35
Team Zero 46%Azure Ray 54%
The model gave 54% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 49:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invoker7e
49% · 80 games47% · 109 games
Nature's Prophetlou
Nature's Prophet
Clinkz
Clinkzpoyoyo
62% · 31 game42% · 72 games
Beastmasterniu
Beastmaster
Kunkka
KunkkaBEYOND
52% · 145 games55% · 110 games
MiranapLAnet
Mirana
Tinker
Tinkerzzq
30% · 9 games53% · 115 games
ClockwerkFantasy
Clockwerk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPyw
49% · 141 game
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 56%
Series resultAzure Ray 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3