Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Zeroloss 2:3series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:3
KEVwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Zero
Batridersignature
iceice · 9 games
Brewmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
zzq · 6 games
Muertasignature
iceice · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 6 games
Dazzleoften banned
7e · 5 games
Jakiro
zzq · 5 games
Lion
iceice · 5 games
KEV
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Undyne_ · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Lich
Undyne_ · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
flyfly · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
flyfly · 2 games
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 351 bans
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 332 bans
Centaur Warrunner
319 picks · 526 bans
Mars
313 picks · 464 bans
Techies
304 picks · 235 bans
Hoodwink
295 picks · 175 bans
Batrider
291 picks · 547 bans
Tiny
279 picks · 239 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% KEV
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:43
Team Zero 59%KEV 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Zero — the game was taken by KEV in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterpoyoyo
Weaverflyfly
Keeper of the Light7e
TimbersawELeVeN
BrewmasterBEYOND
KunkkaButterflyEffect
TechiesPonlo
DisruptorUndyne_
Crystal Maidenzzq
Game 2prediction correct29:40
Team Zero 59%KEV 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 56:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingpoyoyo
Lifestealerflyfly
Pangolier7e
KunkkaButterflyEffect
DoomBEYOND
Night StalkerELeVeN
RubickPonlo
TechiesUndyne_
Miranazzq
Game 3prediction missed6:31
Team Zero 59%KEV 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Zero — the game was taken by KEV in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenpoyoyo
LinaButterflyEffect
Sniper7e
Monkey Kingflyfly
TimbersawBEYOND
OmniknightELeVeN
Miranazzq
DisruptorUndyne_
RubickPonlo
Game 4prediction correct26:19
Team Zero 58%KEV 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerpoyoyo
Nature's Prophetflyfly
MarsBEYOND
LinaButterflyEffect
Slardar7e
TidehunterELeVeN
Miranazzq
PudgeUndyne_
Shadow DemonPonlo
Game 5prediction missed14:24
Team Zero 59%KEV 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Zero — the game was taken by KEV in 32:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenpoyoyo
Terrorbladeflyfly
Tiny7e
Death ProphetButterflyEffect
LycanBEYOND
OmniknightELeVeN
Miranazzq
DisruptorUndyne_
GrimstrokePonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 64%
Series resultKEV 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5