The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Zero
Batridersignature
iceice · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
7e · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
iceice · 6 games
Spirit Breakersignature
zzq · 6 games
Rubick
iceice · 5 games
Techiesoften banned
iceice · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Cty · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
7e · 5 games
Team Bright
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 10 games
Lichsignature
Undyne_ · 8 games
Leshracsignature
phoenix · 7 games
Void Spirit
phoenix · 7 games
Doomsignature
Irving · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
Undyne_ · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
569 picks · 611 bans
Rubick
462 picks · 239 bans
Batrider
426 picks · 794 bans
Ember Spirit
374 picks · 699 bans
Spirit Breaker
372 picks · 378 bans
Doom
342 picks · 724 bans
Timbersaw
341 picks · 835 bans
Morphling
338 picks · 715 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 43%
Hero pool strength61% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:13
Team Zero 62%Team Bright 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 43:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkCty
TimbersawIrving
Invoker7e
Void Spiritphoenix
ViperBEYOND
SilencerUndyne_
Tinyiceice
Venomancerzzq
Game 2prediction correct37:14
Team Zero 63%Team Bright 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenCty
LycanIrving
Keeper of the Light7e
Windrangerphoenix
Legion CommanderBEYOND
DisruptorUndyne_
Tinyiceice
Warlockzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 69%
Series resultTeam Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2