Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Zerowin 1:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TLThe Last Darkloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Zero
Spirit Breakersignature
zzq · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iceice · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
7e · 5 games
Void Spirit
7e · 5 games
Windrangeroften banned
Cty · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
zzq · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Cty · 4 games
The Last Dark
Beastmasteroften banned
Shining · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Echo · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Shining · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
poyoyo · 4 games
Silencer
strawberry · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Shining · 4 games
Void Spirit
poyoyo · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
699 picks · 478 bans
Techies
595 picks · 637 bans
Doom
570 picks · 1111 bans
Disruptor
539 picks · 499 bans
Beastmaster
526 picks · 1234 bans
Ember Spirit
475 picks · 1051 bans
Enchantress
464 picks · 680 bans
Pangolier
458 picks · 918 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 75%
Hero pool strength52% The Last Dark
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:4
Team Zero 52%The Last Dark 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 24:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkCty
PuckEcho
BroodmotherBEYOND
Anti-Magepoyoyo
Tiny7e
TidehunterShining
Techiesiceice
Batriderstrawberry
Venomancerzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 53%
Series resultTeam Zero 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1