Immortal Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zhouwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team YYFloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Zhou
No games played over 6 months.
Team YYF
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 584 bans
Jakiro
493 picks · 442 bans
Ringmaster
466 picks · 232 bans
Terrorblade
363 picks · 732 bans
Storm Spirit
331 picks · 510 bans
Ancient Apparition
328 picks · 752 bans
Tusk
318 picks · 276 bans
Windranger
303 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Team Zhou
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Team Zhou
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:8
Team Zhou 72%Team YYF 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Zhou — the game was taken by Team Zhou in 28:15.
Game 2prediction correct22:25
Team Zhou 72%Team YYF 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Zhou — the game was taken by Team Zhou in 41:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zhou · 72%
Series resultTeam Zhou 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2