PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTTeamCompromisowin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LLowProfileloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TeamCompromiso
No games played over 6 months.
LowProfile
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
472 picks · 604 bans
Muerta
461 picks · 396 bans
Batrider
454 picks · 565 bans
Clockwerk
432 picks · 540 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 780 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 484 bans
Magnus
403 picks · 898 bans
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% TeamCompromiso
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% TeamCompromiso
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TeamCompromiso 76%LowProfile 24%
The model gave 76% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by TeamCompromiso.
Game 2prediction missed
TeamCompromiso 76%LowProfile 24%
The model gave 76% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by LowProfile.
Game 3prediction correct
TeamCompromiso 76%LowProfile 24%
The model gave 76% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by TeamCompromiso.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeamCompromiso · 76%
Series resultTeamCompromiso 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3