PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTTeamCompromisoloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
M80win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TeamCompromiso
Zeus
Panda · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
DaaD- · 4 games
Muerta
Genek · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Genek · 4 games
Lycanoften banned
kendallx · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 2 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Genek · 2 games
M80
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 28 games
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 26 games
Enchantresssignature
MoOz · 21 game
Gyrocoptersignature
K1 · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 18 games
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 17 games
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 17 games
Muertasignature
Elmisho · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
533 picks · 733 bans
Clockwerk
496 picks · 568 bans
Batrider
491 picks · 612 bans
Tiny
483 picks · 576 bans
Muerta
480 picks · 410 bans
Gyrocopter
445 picks · 803 bans
Magnus
445 picks · 983 bans
Lion
401 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% M80
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total65% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:23
TeamCompromiso 41%M80 59%
The model gave 59% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 39:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonAdrx
TerrorbladeK1
GyrocopterDaaD-
PangolierDarkMago
BatriderGenek
TinyILICH-
ClockwerkPanda
Dark WillowMoOz
51% · 264 games
RubickElmisho
Game 2prediction correct36:36
TeamCompromiso 42%M80 58%
The model gave 58% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 47:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeAdrx
BristlebackILICH-
BeastmasterDaaD-
Troll WarlordK1
BatriderGenek
MarsDarkMago
Crystal MaidenPanda
EnchantressMoOz
49% · 325 games
Shadow DemonElmisho
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 65%
Series resultM80 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2