DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTTeamCompromisoloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mosquito Clanwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TeamCompromiso
Zeus
Panda · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
Muerta
Genek · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Genek · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
kendallx · 3 games
Mosquito Clan
Leshrac
PiPi · 4 games
Muerta
Yadomi · 4 games
Abaddonoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
payk · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
payk · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
payk · 2 games
Marcioften banned
payk · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
537 picks · 751 bans
Muerta
438 picks · 321 bans
Phoenix
433 picks · 708 bans
Clockwerk
412 picks · 404 bans
Bristleback
391 picks · 882 bans
Phantom Assassin
389 picks · 691 bans
Magnus
386 picks · 1032 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% TeamCompromiso
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% TeamCompromiso
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:34
TeamCompromiso 51%Mosquito Clan 49%
The model gave 51% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by Mosquito Clan in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusDaaD-
Phantom Assassinpayk
TidehunterAdrx
PuckPiPi
WindrangerGenek
Sand KingVitaly
JakiroPanda
WarlockYadomi
54% · 83 games
Night StalkerMichael
Game 2prediction missed23:35
TeamCompromiso 53%Mosquito Clan 47%
The model gave 53% on TeamCompromiso — the game was taken by Mosquito Clan in 50:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusDaaD-
Phantom Assassinpayk
PangolierAdrx
SlardarPiPi
WindrangerGenek
Centaur WarrunnerVitaly
RingmasterPanda
JakiroYadomi
47% · 192 games
MuertaMichael
Model check result
Model favoriteTeamCompromiso · 53%
Series resultMosquito Clan 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2