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The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tearlamentsloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Azure Raywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tearlaments

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
7e · 3 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Echo · 2 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemist
zzq · 1 game
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
7e · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 1 game
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
7e · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Srf · 1 game
100%

Azure Ray

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pyw · 1 game
100%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Monet · 1 game
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xNova · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 1 game
100%
Luna
Luna
Monet · 1 game
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JT- · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Somnus · 1 game
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
xNova · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
478 picks · 447 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
465 picks · 534 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
439 picks · 221 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
342 picks · 639 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
304 picks · 445 bans
54%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
294 picks · 655 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 218 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
279 picks · 84 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:37
Tearlaments 39%Azure Ray 61%
The model gave 61% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 1:06:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertapoyoyo
47% · 303 games50% · 122 games
Templar AssassinMonet
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEcho
51% · 285 games51% · 337 games
PangolierSomnus
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSrf
48% · 192 games53% · 134 games
TimbersawJT-
Timbersaw
Undying
Undyingzzq
59% · 30 games48% · 193 games
Dark WillowPyw
Dark Willow
Ringmaster
Ringmaster7e
46% · 118 games52% · 142 games
Elder TitanxNova
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct
Tearlaments 30%Azure Ray 70%
The model gave 70% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 70%
Series resultAzure Ray 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2