?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tearlamentswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Excel Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tearlaments

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
7e · 4 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 4 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Srf · 3 games
100%
Muerta
Muerta
poyoyo · 3 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
7e · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Srf · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Srf · 2 games
0%

Excel Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Manic · 7 games
14%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 5 games
40%
Lina
Lina
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
RedPanda · 5 games
60%
Silencer
Silencer
RedPanda · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RedPanda · 4 games
25%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 582 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
486 picks · 438 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
468 picks · 235 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
366 picks · 745 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
334 picks · 767 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
333 picks · 511 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
319 picks · 288 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Tearlaments
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:11
Tearlaments 60%Excel Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladepoyoyo
46% · 260 games53% · 163 games
Ursaukiyo
Ursa
Kunkka
KunkkaEcho
44% · 140 games53% · 335 games
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinySrf
51% · 423 games58% · 290 games
Bristleback生死
Bristleback
Dark Willow
Dark Willow7e
50% · 179 games45% · 142 games
SilencerRedPanda
Silencer
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenzzq
46% · 118 games53% · 190 games
Shadow ShamanCatYou
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct18:11
Tearlaments 61%Excel Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linapoyoyo
48% · 155 games50% · 221 game
Doomukiyo
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSrf
49% · 389 games53% · 235 games
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEcho
45% · 81 game44% · 22 games
Vengeful Spirit生死
Vengeful Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman7e
52% · 161 game52% · 382 games
TinyCatYou
Tiny
Elder Titan
Elder Titanzzq
45% · 164 games57% · 90 games
Ancient ApparitionRedPanda
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 68%
Series resultTearlaments 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2