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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Tearlamentswin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tearlaments

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 9 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 8 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 8 games
88%
Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 7 games
71%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
7e · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 6 games
50%

Roar Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
生死 · 7 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
RedPanda · 5 games
80%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
生死 · 5 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshrac
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
CatYou · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
374 picks · 339 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 851 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
326 picks · 166 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
292 picks · 336 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 789 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 247 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
279 picks · 126 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
273 picks · 687 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Tearlaments
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:15
Tearlaments 53%Roar Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 37:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magepoyoyo
58% · 30 games54% · 143 games
UrsaUlu
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEcho
47% · 248 games47% · 170 games
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
Queen of Pain
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSrf
58% · 184 games50% · 177 games
Primal Beast生死
Primal Beast
Enchantress
Enchantresszzq
54% · 234 games41% · 193 games
HoodwinkCatYou
Hoodwink
Muerta
Muerta7e
47% · 290 games48% · 303 games
ClockwerkRedPanda
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct25:30
Tearlaments 55%Roar Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 42:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
55% · 157 games41% · 82 games
LunaUlu
Luna
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetEcho
51% · 170 games40% · 176 games
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
Queen of Pain
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSrf
54% · 175 games49% · 137 games
Centaur Warrunner生死
Centaur Warrunner
Bane
Banezzq
56% · 88 games51% · 201 game
SnapfireCatYou
Snapfire
Hoodwink
Hoodwink7e
49% · 230 games52% · 224 games
ClockwerkRedPanda
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 57%
Series resultTearlaments 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2