PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Tearlamentsloss 2:3series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Roar Gamingwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tearlaments
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 12 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 10 games
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 10 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
7e · 9 games
Marssignature
Srf · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 7 games
Roar Gaming
Snapfiresignature
CatYou · 9 games
Marssignature
生死 · 8 games
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
RedPanda · 6 games
Earthshakeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Shadow Demonsignature
CatYou · 6 games
Disruptor
RedPanda · 5 games
Leshrac
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
450 picks · 425 bans
Snapfire
446 picks · 225 bans
Puck
353 picks · 939 bans
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
Warlock
298 picks · 148 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 225 bans
Batrider
285 picks · 660 bans
Nature's Prophet
282 picks · 667 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Tearlaments
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total63% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:22
Tearlaments 58%Roar Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 35:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
Nature's ProphetButterflyEffect
Beastmasterniu
GyrocopterUlu
Sand KingEcho
Axe生死
Elder Titanzzq
Shadow DemonCatYou
Grimstroke7e
ClockwerkRedPanda
Game 2prediction correct19:17
Tearlaments 55%Roar Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 29:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusapoyoyo
Doom生死
Bristlebackniu
Monkey KingUlu
Sand KingEcho
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Hoodwink7e
SnapfireCatYou
Silencerzzq
ClockwerkRedPanda
Game 3prediction missed16:30
Tearlaments 55%Roar Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 38:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezpoyoyo
Anti-MageUlu
PuckEcho
LeshracButterflyEffect
Primal Beastniu
Nature's ProphetCatYou
Bounty Hunter7e
Mars生死
Banezzq
Shadow DemonRedPanda
Game 4prediction missed9:23
Tearlaments 58%Roar Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 29:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezpoyoyo
Anti-MageUlu
Nature's ProphetEcho
PuckButterflyEffect
Lycanniu
Tidehunter生死
Tiny7e
Bounty HunterCatYou
Silencerzzq
SnapfireRedPanda
Game 5prediction missed19:33
Tearlaments 57%Roar Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 48:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetpoyoyo
Faceless VoidUlu
EarthshakerEcho
PuckButterflyEffect
Marsniu
Centaur Warrunner生死
Pugnazzq
SnapfireRedPanda
Grimstroke7e
Bounty HunterCatYou
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 63%
Series resultRoar Gaming 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5