Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Tempestwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hokoriloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
564 picks · 464 bans
Mars
437 picks · 673 bans
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 529 bans
Bane
393 picks · 268 bans
Puck
372 picks · 839 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 639 bans
Chaos Knight
329 picks · 659 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% Tempest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:25
Tempest 40%Hokori 60%
The model gave 60% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 36:43.
Game 2prediction correct47:33
Tempest 40%Hokori 60%
The model gave 60% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 41:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 60%
Series resultTempest 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2