The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Tempestloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere
Clockwerk
Solo · 13 games
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
Snapfire
Solo · 11 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 11 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 9 games
Marcioften banned
swedenstrong · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
554 picks · 429 bans
Marci
458 picks · 655 bans
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
Puck
337 picks · 764 bans
Death Prophet
297 picks · 493 bans
Winter Wyvern
291 picks · 370 bans
Batrider
254 picks · 832 bans
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:34
Tempest 35%Natus Vincere 65%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 50:38.
Game 2prediction correct22:46
Tempest 35%Natus Vincere 65%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 65%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2