Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs predictionTTequilaloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tequila
No games played over 6 months.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 13 games
Earth Spirit
dEsire · 11 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 10 games
Bloodseekersignature
BliNcc · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 7 games
Grimstroke
Flash · 7 games
Batridersignature
ntakii · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Flash · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
314 picks · 641 bans
Void Spirit
295 picks · 366 bans
Mars
255 picks · 437 bans
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 192 bans
Rubick
207 picks · 107 bans
Nyx Assassin
202 picks · 618 bans
Keeper of the Light
199 picks · 399 bans
Phoenix
197 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:31
Tequila 47%No Bounty Hunter 53%
The model gave 53% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 39:05.
Game 2prediction correct37:47
Tequila 47%No Bounty Hunter 53%
The model gave 53% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 49:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 53%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2