ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTBthe bugloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9z Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
the bug
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 5 games
Pudge
Newsham · 5 games
Pugna
empyrean5 · 5 games
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 4 games
Earthshaker
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 4 games
Phoenix
empyrean5 · 4 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
9z Team
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Hoodwink
N1NE · 1 game
Spirit Breaker
N1NE · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
drakesh1t · 1 game
Viperoften banned
drakesh1t · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
537 picks · 746 bans
Tusk
483 picks · 341 bans
Dragon Knight
460 picks · 634 bans
Centaur Warrunner
438 picks · 543 bans
Shadow Demon
370 picks · 645 bans
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 549 bans
Mars
337 picks · 461 bans
Hoodwink
335 picks · 148 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% 9z Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% the bug
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:25
the bug 55%9z Team 45%
The model gave 55% on the bug — the game was taken by 9z Team in 18:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterBoris
PuckRobo-Z
Centaur WarrunneriAnnihilate
Underlorddrakesh1t
RikiMTD
Shadow DemonN1NE
Warlockempyrean5
BatriderNewsham
Game 2prediction missed10:27
the bug 57%9z Team 43%
The model gave 57% on the bug — the game was taken by 9z Team in 29:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerBoris
Queen of PainRobo-Z
PhoenixMTD
Tidehunterdrakesh1t
Centaur WarrunneriAnnihilate
Dark WillowN1NE
BatriderNewsham
Ogre Magiempyrean5
Model check result
Model favoritethe bug · 60%
Series result9z Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2