The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTBthe bugwin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PPhenomenonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
the bug
Batrideroften banned
Newsham · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
iAnnihilate · 2 games
Ogre Magi
empyrean5 · 2 games
Rubick
Newsham · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
Axeoften banned
MTD · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Phenomenon
Drow Rangeroften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
Phantom Lancer
ArrOw · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
623 picks · 405 bans
Rubick
528 picks · 291 bans
Phoenix
485 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 389 bans
Pangolier
427 picks · 608 bans
Puck
345 picks · 985 bans
Tusk
342 picks · 289 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 514 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Phenomenon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Phenomenon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:33
the bug 49%Phenomenon 51%
The model gave 51% on Phenomenon — the game was taken by the bug in 49:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinBoris
Shadow FiendArrOw
ViperiAnnihilate
Axemonkeys-forever
ClockwerkNewsham
Treant Protectorempyrean5
Game 2prediction missed45:8
the bug 47%Phenomenon 53%
The model gave 53% on Phenomenon — the game was taken by the bug in 24:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomBoris
Faceless VoidArrOw
Dawnbreakermonkeys-forever
Void SpiritiAnnihilate
LionNewsham
Silencerempyrean5
Model check result
Model favoritePhenomenon · 57%
Series resultthe bug 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2