DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTBthe bugwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TKTeam KaranDotesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
the bug
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nyx · 2 games
Warlock
empyrean5 · 2 games
Clockwerk
empyrean5 · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 1 game
Disruptor
FrancisLee · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Nyx · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Team KaranDotes
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
298 picks · 744 bans
Disruptor
285 picks · 258 bans
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 691 bans
Pugna
259 picks · 279 bans
Tusk
252 picks · 242 bans
Marci
249 picks · 698 bans
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 575 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Team KaranDotes
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% the bug
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:15
the bug 57%Team KaranDotes 43%
The model gave 57% on the bug — the game was taken by the bug in 37:11.
Game 2prediction correct45:18
the bug 57%Team KaranDotes 43%
The model gave 57% on the bug — the game was taken by the bug in 36:58.
Model check result
Model favoritethe bug · 57%
Series resultthe bug 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2