DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTBthe bugwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TKTeam KaranDotesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
the bug
Warlock
empyrean5 · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 2 games
Svenoften banned
Boris · 2 games
Clockwerk
empyrean5 · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 1 game
Hoodwink
bgod · 1 game
Team KaranDotes
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
339 picks · 316 bans
Puck
327 picks · 819 bans
Snapfire
290 picks · 146 bans
Pugna
283 picks · 316 bans
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 766 bans
Tusk
271 picks · 246 bans
Shadow Shaman
269 picks · 172 bans
Warlock
266 picks · 122 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team KaranDotes
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% the bug
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:12
the bug 57%Team KaranDotes 43%
The model gave 57% on the bug — the game was taken by the bug in 34:43.
Game 2prediction correct37:24
the bug 57%Team KaranDotes 43%
The model gave 57% on the bug — the game was taken by the bug in 37:22.
Model check result
Model favoritethe bug · 57%
Series resultthe bug 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2