Asia Pacific Predator League 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
The Councilloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
RMREJECT Maywin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Council
No games played over 6 months.
REJECT May
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
262 picks · 441 bans
Phoenix
241 picks · 378 bans
Centaur Warrunner
229 picks · 301 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
215 picks · 100 bans
Tusk
212 picks · 199 bans
Treant Protector
192 picks · 361 bans
Kunkka
187 picks · 519 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% The Council
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% REJECT May
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:41
The Council 47%REJECT May 53%
The model gave 53% on REJECT May — the game was taken by REJECT May in 39:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteREJECT May · 53%
Series resultREJECT May 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1