The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 1:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 18 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Techiessignature
bgod · 10 games
Bane
Overlom · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 8 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
Arkosh Gaming
Pudge
Dendi · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 1 game
Rubick
Dendi · 1 game
Tiny
Dendi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
719 picks · 572 bans
Puck
502 picks · 1020 bans
Dawnbreaker
494 picks · 655 bans
Marci
480 picks · 812 bans
Winter Wyvern
373 picks · 423 bans
Snapfire
330 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 392 bans
Razor
304 picks · 583 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
The Cut 40%Arkosh Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by The Cut.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 60%
Series resultThe Cut 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1