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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDUB Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Cut

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 9 games
44%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 5 games
0%
Marci
Marcioften banned
bgod · 5 games
60%

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 5 games
60%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 4 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sanctified · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 3 games
67%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
496 picks · 335 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
480 picks · 468 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 415 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
344 picks · 392 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
343 picks · 338 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
295 picks · 157 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 673 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
256 picks · 168 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:21
The Cut 41%CDUB Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by The Cut in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackScourge McDuck
55% · 54 games51% · 104 games
Shadow FiendMark
Shadow Fiend
Death Prophet
Death Prophethigh_shaggy
47% · 202 games50% · 80 games
PudgeDouble King
Pudge
Lycan
LycanChives
55% · 93 games53% · 188 games
BeastmasterislA
Beastmaster
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkbgod
44% · 168 games48% · 110 games
Skywrath MageAfrOmoush
Skywrath Mage
Silencer
Silencerempyrean5
47% · 94 games53% · 129 games
Crystal MaidenSanctified
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed31:19
The Cut 40%CDUB Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by The Cut in 48:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanChives
38% · 111 games56% · 59 games
BloodseekerDouble King
Bloodseeker
Necrophos
Necrophoshigh_shaggy
60% · 36 games54% · 66 games
Primal BeastislA
Primal Beast
Spectre
SpectreScourge McDuck
50% · 37 games54% · 166 games
TuskMark
Tusk
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkbgod
48% · 235 games49% · 190 games
RubickAfrOmoush
Rubick
Silencer
Silencerempyrean5
46% · 165 games54% · 103 games
Crystal MaidenSanctified
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 64%
Series resultThe Cut 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2