Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Electronic Boysloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Snapfire
Giant · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
Marsoften banned
dnm · 3 games
Lunaoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Dark Willow
Giant · 1 game
Earthshaker
dnm · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Electronic Boys
Ogre Magi
albinozebra · 4 games
Razoroften banned
Speeed · 4 games
Bane
albinozebra · 2 games
Dark Willow
b1kA · 2 games
Grimstroke
albinozebra · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Oklahoma · 2 games
Iooften banned
b1kA · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
369 picks · 539 bans
Bane
331 picks · 254 bans
Snapfire
326 picks · 201 bans
Weaver
313 picks · 696 bans
Monkey King
257 picks · 750 bans
Tidehunter
246 picks · 388 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 151 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 329 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 43%
Hero pool strength61% The Cut
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:21
The Cut 58%Electronic Boys 42%
The model gave 58% on The Cut — the game was taken by Electronic Boys in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeScourge McDuck
Nature's ProphetSpeeed
Night Stalkerdnm
Faceless Voidmurd0c
SnapfireGiant
Queen of PainOklahoma
42% · 66 games
Clockwerkb1kA
46% · 139 games
Grimstrokealbinozebra
Game 2prediction correct36:26
The Cut 59%Electronic Boys 41%
The model gave 59% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 35:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackScourge McDuck
Phantom Assassinmurd0c
Spirit Breakerdnm
ViperSpeeed
HoodwinkGiant
PangolierOklahoma
53% · 43 games
Clockwerkb1kA
51% · 61 game
Grimstrokealbinozebra
Game 3prediction correct42:17
The Cut 59%Electronic Boys 41%
The model gave 59% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 31:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinScourge McDuck
Phantom Assassinmurd0c
Tidehunterdnm
TimbersawSpeeed
WeaverGiant
Storm SpiritOklahoma
46% · 72 games
Tuskb1kA
41% · 125 games
Grimstrokealbinozebra
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 63%
Series resultThe Cut 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3