Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Feltwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 9 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Death Prophetsignature
Lil_Nick · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 6 games
Marcioften banned
bgod · 5 games
Felt
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 7 games
Clockwerk
Chen · 6 games
Hoodwink
The Warden · 6 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
paradise' · 5 games
Tiny
Chen · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Fayde · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
555 picks · 368 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 503 bans
Tiny
500 picks · 427 bans
Treant Protector
382 picks · 453 bans
Mirana
364 picks · 356 bans
Snapfire
333 picks · 171 bans
Clockwerk
296 picks · 187 bans
Ember Spirit
296 picks · 719 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% The Cut
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:36
The Cut 50%Felt 50%
The model gave 50% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 31:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomhigh_shaggy
UrsaBerna
Templar AssassinScourge McDuck
Ember Spiritsolji
LycanChives
MagnusFayde
HoodwinkSave
Treant ProtectorChen
Silencerempyrean5
DisruptorShoe
Game 2prediction correct48:18
The Cut 52%Felt 48%
The model gave 52% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 47:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaScourge McDuck
SpectreBerna
Queen of Painhigh_shaggy
Invokersolji
Spirit BreakerChives
EnigmaFayde
SnapfireSave
TinyChen
Silencerempyrean5
Treant ProtectorShoe
Game 3prediction missed20:35
The Cut 51%Felt 49%
The model gave 51% on The Cut — the game was taken by Felt in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperScourge McDuck
UrsaBerna
Huskarhigh_shaggy
BeastmasterFayde
Spirit BreakerChives
Ember Spiritsolji
RubickSave
Skywrath MageShoe
Jakiroempyrean5
Treant ProtectorChen
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 52%
Series resultFelt 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3